Analytics
Resolved Trump on 5 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 90%. The Harris side opened at 66% on 20 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2024 to 5 Dec 2024, the highest close was 85% on 6 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 27 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 17.1% on 20 Nov 2024. $26.65K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 6, 5:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 20 Sep 2024 – 5 Dec 2024
| Observed | Harris price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2024 | 66.0% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | 10.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Melody626 | Harris | 355 |
| Schrute | Harris | 204 |
| kingfisher | Harris | 28.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Harris" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Bucks county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Bucks county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election. If neither a Democratic or Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Bucks county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election this market will resolve to 50-50. If the margin between the leading candidate and the next candidate exceeds the number of outstanding votes (including mail-in) yet to be counted, this market may resolve accordingly. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting of the Bucks county vote tally.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/swing-districts-2024
| Harris |
| 20 |
| ccc1233 | Trump | 16.13 |
| bintouy | Harris | 0.1 |
| restileo | Harris | 0.07 |
| DonPanic | Trump | 0.03 |
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