Who will lead on Silver Bulletin on Friday?

Resolved

Trump, settled Oct 18, 2024 UTC

Harris

0.0%

Trump

100.0%

Final Harris 0¢Final Trump 100¢

Lifetime volume

$176.7K

Resolved

Trump

Settled

Oct 18, 2024 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved Trump on 18 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 66.5%. The Harris side opened at 57% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 18 Oct 2024, the highest close was 71% on 15 Oct 2024 and the lowest 30.5% on 16 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 30.5% on 16 Oct 2024. $176.68K traded over the market's life.

46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 6:42 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 18 Oct 2024

Harris price, first and latest
Observed	Harris price
12 Oct 2024	57.0%
18 Oct 2024	33.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
dankmasterdan	Harris	576.92
Yearly-Bachelor	Harris	153.64
jazz	Harris	128
williamsomewhere	Harris	124.68

10 of 46 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Harris" if Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin's election forecast on October 18, 2024. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin's election forecast on October 18, 2024. If the Silver Bulletin's election forecast for October 18, is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 18 when the datapoint first becomes available. If no datapoint for October 18 is available by October 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 18.