Who will gain more in polls after the debate?

politicsResolved

Kamala, settled Sep 18, 2024 UTC

Kamala

100.0%

Trump

0.0%

Final Kamala 100¢Final Trump 0¢

Lifetime volume

$176.1K

Resolved

Kamala

Settled

Sep 18, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Kamala on 18 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Kamala at 99%. The Kamala side opened at 54% on 4 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2024 to 18 Sep 2024, the highest close was 99% on 18 Sep 2024 and the lowest 51% on 6 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 77% on 12 Sep 2024. $176.13K traded over the market's life.

33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 19, 6:56 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Kamala price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 4 Sep 2024 – 18 Sep 2024

Kamala price, first and latest
Observed	Kamala price
4 Sep 2024	54.0%
18 Sep 2024	99.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
QQQ777	Trump	1.39K
santian	Trump	580.58
Lermatov	Trump	357.14
Expert-Messy	Trump	108.7

10 of 33 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market is on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will gain more in the polls one week after the presidential debate, scheduled for September 10, 2024. The resolution will be based on the Fivethirtyeight daily polling averages chart labeled "Trump vs. Harris", available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national. The market will resolve according to the Fivethirtyeight polling average data points for Trump and Harris for September 10, compared with the polling average data points for Trump and Harris on September 17th, once Fivethirtyeight has published data points for September 18th. If Kamala's polling average increases more/decreases less than Trump's, the market will resolve to "Kamala". If Trump's polling average increases more/decreases less than Harris's, the market will resolve to "Trump". If both candidates' polling averages increase/decrease by the same amount, the market will resolve to 50-50. If the presidential debate is canceled, postponed beyond September 10, 2024 ET, or otherwise does not take place on September 10, the market will resolve to 50-50.