Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

politicsResolved

Trump, settled Jul 21, 2024 UTC

Biden

0.0%

Trump

100.0%

Final Biden 0¢Final Trump 100¢

Lifetime volume

$224.3K

Resolved

Trump

Settled

Jul 21, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Trump on 21 Jul 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 99.6%. The Biden side opened at 29.5% on 16 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2024 to 21 Jul 2024, the highest close was 74.5% on 18 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 21 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 64 points down, to 4% on 20 Jul 2024. $224.35K traded over the market's life.

23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 5:56 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Biden price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 16 Jul 2024 – 21 Jul 2024

Biden price, first and latest
Observed	Biden price
16 Jul 2024	29.5%
21 Jul 2024	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ddddddddsh	Biden	549.44
Large-Realm	Biden	239.68
trymyluck	Biden	5.7
itza09	Biden	4.19

10 of 23 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.