Analytics
Resolved Biden on 28 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Biden at 44%. The Biden side opened at 70.5% on 25 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 25 Jun 2024 to 28 Jun 2024, the highest close was 80.5% on 27 Jun 2024 and the lowest 44% on 28 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 44% on 28 Jun 2024. $10.76K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 29, 7:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Biden price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 25 Jun 2024 – 28 Jun 2024
| Observed | Biden price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2024 | 70.5% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | 44.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Brx | Trump | 297.92 |
| Valentin-web3 | Trump | 231.77 |
| exradar | Trump | 47.08 |
| SwaGesus | Trump | 10.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle is currently scheduled for June 27, 2024. This market will resolve to "Biden" if Joe Biden is asked the first debate question. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump is asked the first debate question. If neither is asked a question at the debate, this market will resolve 50-50. The first debate question refers to the first question the moderators ask that is part of the actual debate (i.e. if the moderator just asks "Are you ready?" it won't count - this market is about the first question relevant to a debate topic.) If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "50-50". The primary resolution source for this market will be official footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-is-asked-the-first-debate-question
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
