Analytics
Resolved Republicans on 8 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Republicans at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 20 Sep 2023. Before it settled, across the 416 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2023 to 8 Nov 2024, the highest close was 65% on 22 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 63.5% on 18 Nov 2023. $3.44M traded over the market's life.
287 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 9, 7:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 416 points, 20 Sep 2023 – 8 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2023 | 27.5% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to "Democrats" if following the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and a Democrat Vice President. It will resolve to "Republicans" under the same conditions for Republicans. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, this market will resolve 50-50. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2024 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2024-election
| tn2 | Democrats | 1.43K |
| Hyp98 | Democrats | 1.19K |
| Idle-Snorer | Democrats | 1K |
| KingAsh417 | Democrats | 945.26 |
| AmericaWakeUp | Democrats | 937.5 |
| matp | Democrats | 749.99 |
| Elliptical-Pottery | Democrats | 630.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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