Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had Yes at 52.5%. Yes was at 80.5% at 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 7 price reads from 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, the highest read was 90.5% on 22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC and the lowest 50% on 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. $160 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 2:40 AM UTC
6-hour closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 21 Oct, 12:00 UTC – 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 80.5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 52.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Keen Raven 5BD9 | No | 100 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 15 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if San Francisco, CA records measurable precipitation on October 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for KSFO: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for KSFO, published at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=SFO.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-it-rain-on-october-22-2026
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