Analytics
“Vail Resorts (MTN) Up or Down After Earnings?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Dec 11, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 17 hourly price points from Nov 26, 2025 to Dec 12, 2025 (Yes between 48.5% and 92.0%); 5 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 7 recent public fills from 4 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Vail Resorts (MTN) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for MTN prior to the earnings release. This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Vail Resorts (MTN) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for MTN prior to the earnings release. This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If MTN does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for MTN.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/vail-resorts-mtn-up-or-down-after-earnings
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 9735 | Down | 100 |
| mumu456 | Down | 20 |
| brjrtrt | Down | 19 |
| ujythtrgrwedfhetrg | Down | 17 |
| rocketcrypto | Down | 12 |