Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 22 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 315 daily closes on record from 22 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 51% on 13 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 11.5% on 22 Aug 2025. $10.26K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 22 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 472.59 |
| jontra | Yes | 428.57 |
| bianbaba | Yes | 124.07 |
On February 21, a bat coronavirus that has the capacity to spread to humans, known as HKU5-CoV-2, was reportedly discovered (See: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-discovers-new-bat-coronavirus-that-poses-risk-of-animal-to-human-transmission/3489013) This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against HKU5-CoV-2 receives full FDA approval between February 20, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/vaccine-for-new-covid-disease-in-2025
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 74.52 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 69.47 |
| Rlso | Yes | 46.94 |
| power1337 | Yes | 39.78 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 39.23 |
| Kanp | Yes | 38.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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