Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86.5%. Yes opened at 71% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 27 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 77.5% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 47% on 11 Mar 2026. $470.49K traded over the market's life.
184 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 4, 6:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 71.0% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | 13.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Disgusting-Drudgery | Yes | 2.21K |
| Icy-Gingerbread | Yes | 1.66K |
| goodygoody | Yes | 1.54K |
| Clean-Coevolution-Vermicelli | Yes | 657.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usisrael-strike-yemen-by
| surpriiiise | Yes | 599.56 |
| Juhannus | Yes | 524.42 |
| GhostofMk | Yes | 506.99 |
| Nostrodamas | Yes | 486.35 |
| JohnReacher | Yes | 358.52 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 356.7 |
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