Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 35% on 7 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2026 to 15 Mar 2026, the highest close was 35% on 7 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 15 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 28% on 9 Mar 2026.
103 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 7:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 7 Mar 2026 – 15 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | 35.0% |
| 15 Mar 2026 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Leon8899 | Yes | 4K |
| Ringed-Gambling | Yes | 2.45K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usisrael-strike-on-fordow-nuclear-facility-by-march-31
| Shmuela | Yes | 1.97K |
| yaguayng | Yes | 1.01K |
| thecountdooku | Yes | 1K |
| Doting-Maracas | Yes | 589.12 |
| Squiggly-Bird | Yes | 543.85 |
| youngvla | Yes | 543.01 |
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