Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 369 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 43.5% on 30 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 15.5% on 31 Dec 2024. $1.81M traded over the market's life.
389 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 369 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 43.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0XSWEEP1 | Yes | 26.26K |
| Gentle-Connection | Yes | 18.65K |
| Rynockx | Yes | 17.3K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 01 Jan '25 00:00 and 31 Dec '25 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2025 will count. The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/spot/USDT-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase USDT-USD. If Coinbase stops having the necessary USDT information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDT was below 98 cents for 24h+ may be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usdt-depeg-in-2025
| MarckoPolo | Yes | 13K |
| MARCUSW3 | Yes | 10K |
| JTXEXE | Yes | 7.99K |
| MetaDon | Yes | 5K |
| 1work1 | Yes | 4.06K |
| commeowder | Yes | 3K |
| Ilovelove | Yes | 2.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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