The question, the state of play, and how it settles
Facts updated just now
“US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 14, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 3 hourly price points from Sep 12, 2026 to Sep 14, 2026 (Yes between 50.0% and 50.0%); 12 recent public fills from 5 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Timeline
Event starts
Sep 11, 2026
Trading closed
Sep 14, 2026
Now
Live observation
Event starts
Source Evidence
Evidence coverage
Items
2
Fetched
2
Latest
just now
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Depth
Observed
just now
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.
Market state
Closed
Order book
Captured book available
Observed Yes
100.0%
The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.
Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.
Rows loaded
Wallets
Top 10 share
Yes / No shares
The provider top-holder sample is currently unavailable.
Recent tapeLatest public market trades.
Trades loaded
12
Wallets
5
Loaded notional
$11.9
Up buy at 99.0%
Field guide
How to read this market
9 stops
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
01
Yes and No prices
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Last observed
Yes 100.0¢ · No 0.0¢
02
Implied probability
Price historyPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Sep 14, 12:00 AM
Points
3
Latest close
50.0%
Last bucket
Sep 14, 12:00 AM
Top holdersLargest rows from the capped public top-holder endpoint; not venue-wide open interest.
Top-holder sample unavailable
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
Event contextBest-effort grouped event lookup for this market.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?
Questions
Questions about this market
What is the “US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?” market asking?
It asks whether the following will happen: US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?
At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to close on Sep 14, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
24h volume ($2.08) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Sep 11, 2026
Trading closedSep 14, 2026
NowLive observation
Outcomes
Up
100.0¢ · 100.0%
Down
0.0¢ · 0.0%
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date.
If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Sep 14, 12:00 AM
Points
3
Move
0.0 pts
Range
50.0% - 50.0%
Sep 12, 12:00 AM to Sep 14, 12:00 AM
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Yes chance
100.0%
03
24h volume
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Traded in 24h
$2.08
04
Liquidity
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
05
Spread
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
06
Top holders and concentration
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
07
Trade tape
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Loaded fills
12 fills · 5 wallets · $11.9
08
Price history
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
3 hourly points
50.0% to 50.0% · 0.0 pts
09
Close and resolution
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date.
If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
EvidenceMarket-scoped source, creator, and related-market links.
Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.
No trader leaderboard
Market-scoped trader rows are not available for this market.
Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 15, 12:04 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
Can I trade this market on Vultax?
No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/usdjpy-up-or-down-on-september-14-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.
