Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 53% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 21 Feb 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 21 Feb 2026 and the lowest 53% on 5 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 79.5% on 6 Dec 2025. $10.63K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 22, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 21 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 53.0% |
| 21 Feb 2026 | 95.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fabic-ai | No | 70.21 |
| Oldlamp | No | 35.71 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | No | 30.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q4 2025 is higher than Q3 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q4 2025 release will not be counted. If all relevant data is not published by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-revenue-up-in-q4-2025
| No |
| 30 |
| Agitated-Nose | No | 30 |
| Enormous-Phrasing | No | 24.15 |
| 7de9 | No | 7.14 |
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