US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 23, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$79.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 23, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 23 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 92.5% on 8 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 139 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2025 to 23 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.6% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 92.5% on 8 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.8 points down, to 93.3% on 18 Oct 2025. $79.32K traded over the market's life.

558 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 24, 4:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 8 Aug 2025 – 23 Dec 2025, chart shows 90%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Aug 2025	92.5%
23 Dec 2025	99.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
southdictionary	No	913.51
PipiKaki69	No	881.13
ditto.hl	No	469.51

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q3 2025 is higher than Q2 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q3 2025 release will not be counted. If all relevant data is not published by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.