Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 5 Jan 2026 and the low 1.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 99 points up, to 99.9% on 2 Jan 2026. $3.35M traded over the market's life.
175 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 6, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 5 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 50.0% |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Boring-Bronco | No | 248.8K |
| themaster | No | 111.42K |
| Luisito98 | No | 50.77K |
| U77C | No | 50K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-yemen-by-september-30
| NotBot1 | No | 29.26K |
| Emperorvikky | No | 20K |
| Common-Haven | No | 20K |
| Leading-Stopsign | No | 20K |
| yhj754ghfhfg | No | 16.5K |
| Deafening-Psychology | No | 13.75K |
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