Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 4 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 4 Nov 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 6.5% on 4 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 1.1% on 29 Nov 2025. $268.32K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 4 Nov 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2025 | 6.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chickenben | Yes | 1.47K |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 999.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 639 |
| fortuneofweb3 | Yes | 414.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-nigeria-by
| Tidy-Kiss | Yes | 401 |
| kzUpjZdfrH | Yes | 300 |
| cLFTkoHgnJ | Yes | 300 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 253 |
| ZewBLHWpKk | Yes | 240 |
| Manpaoyu | Yes | 229.33 |
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