Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 18%. Yes opened at 49% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 89 daily closes on record from 27 Jan 2026 to 16 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 11 Feb 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 15 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 13% on 14 May 2026. $107.97K traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 17, 12:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 89 points, 27 Jan 2026 – 16 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 49.0% |
| 16 May 2026 | 18.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rigatohni | No | 9.31K |
| 0x2585e7022dc2075a108204bIxc08cea8d13b60a | No | 2K |
| Bold Vector 1920 | No | 1.85K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-nigeria-by
| No |
| 1.54K |
| Runny-Clasp | No | 1.12K |
| yen4u | No | 1K |
| Purpur22 | No | 507.53 |
| aestheted | No | 450.27 |
| niglette | No | 371.45 |
| Michell03 | No | 357.14 |
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