Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 60% on 19 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2025 to 5 Jul 2025, the highest close was 60% on 19 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 7.4% on 29 Jun 2025. $876.63K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 19 Jun 2025 – 5 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2025 | 60.0% |
| 5 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Londonbritish45 | Yes | 182.03K |
| Jkjk369 | Yes | 61K |
| ForFun1 | Yes | 26.14K |
| barz2k | Yes | 8.58K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States military provides in-air refueling to Israeli aircraft as part of operations involving strikes on Iranian territory by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Strikes must be confirmed as targeting sites within Iran, and the refueling must be directly associated with those missions. General military cooperation, joint exercises, or unrelated refueling operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible media reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-refuels-israeli-jets-for-strikes-on-iran-before-july
| georgekillz | Yes | 8.33K |
| Sappscreen12 | Yes | 6.06K |
| Weird-Agony | Yes | 2K |
| alexfreelancer | Yes | 1K |
| Karmel | Yes | 1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 487.99 |
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