
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 19 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 203 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2024 to 7 Nov 2024, the highest close was 50% on 19 Apr 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 13% on 20 Apr 2024. $869.29K traded over the market's life.
252 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 8, 6:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 203 points, 19 Apr 2024 – 7 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2024 | 50.0% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kungfutofu1 | Yes | 14.52K |
| kryptowaluty | Yes | 11.44K |
| PS507 | Yes | 8K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid red state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Solid red states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming. Solid red states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market. Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Democratic candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-presidential-election-democrats-win-a-solid-red-state
| MoonRideKingdom | Yes | 7.25K |
| Jawz21007 | Yes | 6.4K |
| random228 | Yes | 5.35K |
| Maverick12 | Yes | 5.13K |
| Wheretoalex | Yes | 5.06K |
| GambleOnDemocracy | Yes | 5K |
| HerbertYardley | Yes | 4.84K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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