Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 24 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 5.5% on 1 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Nov 2024. $113.85K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 6:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Sep 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2024 | 4.5% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Huskan | Yes | 100 |
| fgoue | No | 1.47 |
| Louweddft | No | 0.08 |
| MagiC0smos7 | No | 0.06 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Lebanese soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Lebanese soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-strike-on-lebanon-before-november
| Bink_7 | No | 0.05 |
| oaokjloj | No | 0.04 |
| thinking | No | 0.03 |
| nsqvipvm | No | 0.03 |
| archaic | No | 0.02 |
| CryptoBecu | No | 0.02 |
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