Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 45.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 13 Dec 2023. Before it settled, the high was 68.5% on 26 Dec 2023 and the low 21% on 15 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 50% on 16 Dec 2023. $28.55K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 13 Dec 2023 – 11 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2023 | 26.0% |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 45.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HarvardInsider | No | 2.68K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from November to December 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.2 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from November to December 2023 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS November 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 11, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.3%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.2%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-inflation-0pt2-from-nov-to-dec-2023
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