Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 35% on 26 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 190 daily closes on record from 26 Mar 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 99.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 27% on 8 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 99.5% on 1 Oct 2025. $411.59K traded over the market's life.
105 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 190 points, 26 Mar 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2025 | 35.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SKSN | No | 100K |
| Embarrassed-Altitude | No | 7.75K |
| V.D.M | No | 5.73K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-funding-lapse-on-october-1
| Bold Beacon F79F | No | 5K |
| o=h= | No | 4.61K |
| goodbyebyebye | No | 3.13K |
| DaveAdams | No | 2.75K |
| Braddington | No | 2.34K |
| Beepidibop | No | 2.28K |
| ryunose | No | 2.12K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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