Analytics
Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.4% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 16% on 24 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 66 points up, to 82.5% on 25 Jan 2026. $1.84M traded over the market's life.
502 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 38.5% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mmmcleve | No | 48.59K |
| fokinmark | No | 40.6K |
| SnarkGoblin | No | 35.28K |
| Grotesque-Swine | No | 17.93K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-funding-lapse-on-january-31
| sb911 | No | 13.71K |
| MoneyWizard | No | 12.21K |
| Upstep | No | 10.99K |
| Melody626 | No | 10K |
| Bobit21 | No | 8.86K |
| drpouchon | No | 6.46K |
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