Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 11 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 11 Feb 2026 to 15 Feb 2026, the highest close was 19% on 14 Feb 2026 and the lowest 7% on 15 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7% on 15 Feb 2026. $10.7K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 11 Feb 2026 – 15 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | 18.5% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | 7.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 344 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 314 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 299 |
| MichaelFrank6014 | Yes | 296 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-seize-another-oil-tanker-by-328
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 222 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 82 |
| zebb1 | Yes | 52.99 |
| 9735 | Yes | 50 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
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