Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 21 Jan 2026 and the low 29.5% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 100% on 21 Jan 2026. $45.15K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 22, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 21 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 42.5% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.5K |
| cpienovi | No | 634.66 |
| Secret-Admire | No | 572.65 |
| FunGuy | No | 499.98 |
| xxxTeeMxxx | No | 433.33 |
| gerioth | No | 336.24 |
| cevallebaggins | No | 234.04 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 200 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 175 |
| KineKa | No | 166.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-seize-another-oil-ship-by-995
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