Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 17.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 46.5% on 18 Dec 2025 and the low 17.5% on 3 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 27% on 19 Dec 2025. $411.49K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 3 Jan 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 46.5% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 17.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CATAHA666 | No | 23K |
| DimaDegen | No | 17.87K |
| Eendereet | No | 10K |
| Black-Alliance | No | 8.33K |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 2.39K |
| Kakarovich | No | 1.6K |
| GammaTrading | No | 1.05K |
| Distinct-Recognition | No | 1K |
| Ola359 | No | 489.32 |
| Mindejukne | No | 442.79 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-venezuela-by
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