Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 62.1%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 30 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 70.5% on 2 Dec 2025 and the low 6% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 62.9% on 12 Jan 2026. $12.86K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 8:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 117 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 23 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 55.5% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | 38.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q3-2025
| Yes |
| 301.22 |
| ttj01 | Yes | 250 |
| alivip | Yes | 200 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 127 |
| Jas0matic | No | 31.64 |
| Ringlord | No | 20.57 |
| BillyPerry2529 | Yes | 18 |
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