U.S. fertility rate up in Q1 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$18.3K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 79%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 19 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 31.5% on 19 Jun 2025 and the lowest 12.5% on 25 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 16% on 23 Jun 2025. $18.26K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 19 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Jun 2025	31.5%
1 Jul 2025	21.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
RockNRoll	Yes	573.79
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	377
Knut420	Yes	99.99
Longicaudatus	Yes	81.58

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 54.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2024 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2025 exceeds 54.6, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2025 by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.