Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 30% on 31 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 30% on 31 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 18% on 5 Aug 2024. $38.88K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 3:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 31 Jul 2024 – 1 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | 30.0% |
| 1 Sep 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sd2333 | Yes | 1.23K |
| Royal Orbit EDD8 | Yes | 314.29 |
| flxy | Yes | 172.41 |
| gumbyler | Yes | 161.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-august-31
| AltricialSquab | Yes | 58.6 |
| RadLilDude | Yes | 36.53 |
| Peeman | Yes | 32.66 |
| 2nd | Yes | 14.29 |
| 9deF | Yes | 11.54 |
| unndo | Yes | 0.11 |
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