Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2026 to 1 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 21 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 9% on 24 Feb 2026. $339.99K traded over the market's life.
129 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 18, 11:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 21 Feb 2026 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sardonic-Stitch | Yes | 7.06K |
| Euphoric-Algebra | Yes | 4.49K |
| Spirit-LT | Yes | 2.1K |
| Kmp711 | Yes | 1.86K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
| Realistic-Muscatel | Yes | 1.03K |
| UniByte | Yes | 920.72 |
| Cobalt Voyager 1920 | Yes | 886.75 |
| Focused-Jeans | Yes | 652.05 |
| Surfgirl76 | Yes | 529.03 |
| udikqe1 | Yes | 495.48 |
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