Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2025 to 13 Nov 2025, the highest close was 42% on 7 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 13 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 27.5% on 8 Nov 2025. $340.91K traded over the market's life.
131 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 14, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 13 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 29.5% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Pokymarket | Yes | 21.55K |
| falafel232 | Yes | 1.93K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.16K |
| ForSale | Yes | 1.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On November 4th, U.S. Department of Transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that if the government shutdown continues, the federal government may have to “close certain parts of the airspace” due to consequences of the shutdown. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-mass-chaos-may-need-close-some-airspace-if-government-shutdown-2025-11-04/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), or any other federal agency formally closes or suspends part of U.S. civilian airspace during the current U.S. government shutdown, due to circumstances clearly caused by the shutdown. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the relevant government action must order closure or suspension of civilian airspace or flight operations, affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety, and explicitly reference circumstances clearly caused by the current U.S. government shutdown as the reason for the action. Circumstances qualifying as clearly caused by the shutdown include staffing shortages of air traffic controllers or other essential air travel employees due to a lack of funding caused by the government shutdown. Routine delays and disruptions caused mainly by weather, technical, or security issues do not count. Suspensions or closures due to emergencies which are not caused by the government shutdown do not count. Closures, suspensions, or cancellations due to circumstances caused by the current U.S. government shutdown, but which are not tied to federal government action, do not count. If the current U.S. government shutdown ends and no such U.S. civilian airspace closure has been declared, this market will resolve to “No”. The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, or other federal agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| duderr | Yes | 1K |
| Boring-Spandex | Yes | 911.68 |
| juvenalluna1 | Yes | 500 |
| RonaldOliver21 | Yes | 495.92 |
| EexwhnsSWb | Yes | 473.77 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 404.08 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-closes-airspace-due-to-government-shutdown
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
