Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96%. Yes opened at 70.5% on 6 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 6 May 2025 to 12 May 2025, the highest close was 96% on 12 May 2025 and the lowest 70.5% on 6 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 90.5% on 10 May 2025. $48.94K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 13, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 6 May 2025 – 12 May 2025, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2025 | 70.5% |
| 12 May 2025 | 96.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-china-trade-deal-in-2025
| LEE2024 | No | 15 |
| Form-685 | No | 6.67 |
| NewYorkero | Yes | 5.38 |
| fermi90 | Yes | 2.87 |
| lestAAAA | Yes | 0.01 |
| thepolwinner | No | 0.01 |
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