Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.5%. Yes opened at 67.5% on 13 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 79 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2025 to 30 Oct 2025, the highest close was 93.5% on 8 Oct 2025 and the lowest 67.5% on 13 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 71% on 11 Oct 2025. $669.13K traded over the market's life.
400 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 79 points, 13 Aug 2025 – 30 Oct 2025, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | 67.5% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 91.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On August 11, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of a mutual reduction in tariffs as part of a temporary trade de-escalation agreement. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between August 12, and November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend the 90 day tariff reduction announced on August 12, will qualify. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-china-tariff-agreement-before-90-day-deadline-518
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