Resolved No on 3 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 46% on 26 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 3 Sep 2026, the highest close was 46% on 26 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 6% on 29 Aug 2026. $1.01K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 12:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 3 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 46.0% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.43K |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 200 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 167.46 |
| balthazar | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-cattle-inventory-area-in-drought-week-of-september-1-20260825113010
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 100 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 52.03 |
| Menacing-Revitalization-Anorak | Yes | 50 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 50 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 33.11 |
| tryrktry | Yes | 25 |
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