Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 14% on 2 Feb 2024. Before it settled, the high was 17% on 8 Feb 2024 and the low 0.3% on 1 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 17% on 8 Feb 2024. $117.05K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 7:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 29 points · 2 Feb 2024 – 1 Mar 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2024 | 14.0% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YieldGuy | Yes | 1.88K |
| Amber Meteor 13D8 | Yes | 66.67 |
| TGH | Yes | 33.33 |
| yahoooo | No | 1.09 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between February 1 and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be in February 2024. If there is a potential bank failure in February and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-in-february
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