Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 2 May 2026 and the low 51.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 100% on 2 May 2026. $13.6K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 10:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 51.5% |
| 2 May 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Awestin.eth | No | 299.99 |
| sparkdigital | Yes | 223 |
| BradJenkins1631 | No | 223 |
| Mojito9 | No | 15.1 |
| bub111 | No | 8 |
| tugggjsz | No | 4.99 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | No | 4.99 |
| Spotted-Walrus | No | 3.33 |
| Zennitude | No | 2.38 |
| MasterGuigu | Yes | 0.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-996
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