Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7% on 16 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 16 Oct 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 24.5% on 12 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 24.5% on 12 Nov 2024. $153.92K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 16 Oct 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2024 | 7.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yk15 | Yes | 1K |
| areyoumydeadhead | No | 220.93 |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | Yes | 105 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States imposes an arms embargo on Israel at any point between October 13, 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment to Israel or an official announcement from the U.S. government announcing an embargo. A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. An announcement of an embargo will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether the embargo actually goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-arms-embargo-on-israel-in-2024
| Yes |
| 93.06 |
| competizion | Yes | 22.22 |
| fhgnrfbnbdh | Yes | 20 |
| Keen Voyager F712 | Yes | 18.1 |
| Indigo Meteor 09E9 | Yes | 16.9 |
| yern | No | 11.01 |
| Phoenix84 | No | 10.53 |
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