Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 26.5% on 3 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 26 Jul 2026, the highest close was 44.5% on 16 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 8.5% on 17 Jul 2026. $2.12K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 26, 11:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 26 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | 26.5% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.71K |
| Perfect-Neighbourhood | Yes | 538.76 |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 431 |
| balthazar | Yes | 359.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve in favor of the bracket that matches the margin of victory between the winner and 2nd place at the conclusion of the 2026 Tour De France. If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed, or the margin of victory cannot be determined as equaling or exceeding the listed number by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tour-de-france-2026-margin-of-victory-20260629213153542
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| ManojWarRoom | Yes | 172.04 |
| demonograph | Yes | 160 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 143 |
| beppo | Yes | 108.95 |
| Neon Kestrel D874 | Yes | 62.54 |
