Resolved No on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 34% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 34% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 11 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 5% on 2 Jul 2026. $23.48K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 2:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 11 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 34.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 566.15 |
| dropmeplease | Yes | 250.58 |
| lion2398 | Yes | 230.77 |
| Fuadkrm7 | Yes | 125 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260627173804882
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Pineappleeee | Yes | 100 |
| Slim-Willow | Yes | 100 |
| Lost-Antelope | Yes | 76.92 |
| PPMT | Yes | 55.9 |
| JohnDRockefeller | Yes | 50 |
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