Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.3%. Yes opened at 53% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 99.3% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 53% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 93.5% on 28 Jun 2026. $15.61K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 6:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 53.0% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 99.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.98K |
| taberhasher | No | 972.54 |
| rainy59 | No | 130 |
| PPMT | No | 29.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-july-4-20260626161107952
| Miniature-Treasure | Yes | 21.39 |
| goldisoverrated | No | 14.39 |
| Swift Harbor 5E97 | No | 8.4 |
| Academic-Sunlamp | No | 5.01 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 4.96 |
| korda77 | No | 3.04 |
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