
Trading ended on 6 Oct 2026 with Yes at 38.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
The high was 79.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the low 38.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 73%. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 38.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
Spain is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “Croatia vs. Spain”, ahead of Croatia at 31.5%.
$4.05M has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is joseph00677 with 1.99M shares; the largest No position is BreakTheBank with 792.4K. Ten wallets hold 71.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 7:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 14 points · 24 Sep 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 66.0% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 38.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| joseph00677 | Yes | 1.99M |
| BreakTheBank | No | 792.44K |
| Substantial-Service | No | 505.44K |
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 6, 2026 If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/unl-hrv-esp-2026-10-06
| bettingbettor | No | 250K |
| Thunderous-Authorisation-Snarl | No | 191.5K |
| Amber Lynx 74FE | Yes | 141.87K |
| UpTheBlues | No | 137.62K |
| nigiri99 | Yes | 132.89K |
| ArturitoFilito | No | 125.49K |
| vdsgsdfgb | Yes | 123.85K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page