Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70%. Yes opened at 50% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 12 Jan 2026, the highest close was 90.8% on 9 Jan 2026 and the lowest 50% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 90.8% on 9 Jan 2026. $12.69K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 13, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 12 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 12 Jan 2026 | 70.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ttj01 | No | 250 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 205 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 170 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 153 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties, such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2,” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet). Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-black-sea-by-354
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 115 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 82 |
| Grubby-Story | No | 63.61 |
| t189 | No | 50 |
| tiancs | No | 49.99 |
| Handmade-Presence | No | 49.33 |
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