Analytics
Resolved No on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 35% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 2 May 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 35% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 21% on 27 Mar 2026. $20.33K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 9:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 2 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 35.0% |
| 2 May 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kermit523 | Yes | 1.04K |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 466.88 |
| Swift Meteor 24DE | Yes | 242.86 |
| Practical-Buy | Yes | 170.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-hits-moscow-by
| Itchy-Chives | Yes | 142.86 |
| Sparse-Attack | Yes | 94.34 |
| POTUSSR | Yes | 77.14 |
| peiotrading | Yes | 72 |
| Critical-Endive | Yes | 57.69 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 48.39 |
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