Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 18 Apr 2026 (18 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27.5% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 13.5% on 28 Mar 2026. $9.87K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 18, 11:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 18 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 27.5% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alexei.Levkin | Yes | 503.99 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| French-Nobody | Yes | 136.58 |
| gojko | Yes | 90.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-hits-moscow-by
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| brunotalebconvexo | Yes | 23.81 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 20 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 18.05 |
| ra5tadark | Yes | 18 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
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