Analytics
“UK civil war in 2024?” is a geopolitics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Dec 31, 2024. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 149 hourly price points from Aug 6, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025 (Yes between 0.1% and 4.5%); 17 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 97.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 220 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming the UK is in a civil war. Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a consensus of reporting that the UK has entered a literal civil war will qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uk-civil-war-in-2024
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| odzinski.peter | Yes | 2.83K |
| jenkins | Yes | 1.23K |
| Lezaneczka | Yes | 1.05K |
| firewings20220 | Yes | 1.02K |
| Crassus33 | Yes | 1K |
| ER02CB | Yes | 416.67 |
| DaveM. | Yes | 299.99 |
| gamblingsimga | Yes | 209.8 |
| Brown-Glance | Yes | 200 |
| d3i | Yes | 106.25 |