Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 58%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 63.5% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 49% on 29 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 62.5% on 9 Jul 2026. $81.4 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 7:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 11 Jul 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 58.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RadioFreeZerg | No | 15.52 |
| AntiVaxxer | No | 2.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Zachary Reese and Ryan Gandra at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-zac5-rya18-2026-07-11
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