Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 6 Mar 2026 and the low 28% on 9 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28% on 9 Mar 2026.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 16, 2:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 6 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | 29.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Avaricious-Realm | Yes | 306.89 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 10 |
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 5.58 |
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
| ZSM4736326 | Yes | 5 |
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| Meta0x77 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vitor Petrino and Steven Asplund at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos, scheduled for March 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-vit3-ste36-2026-03-14
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