Analytics
Resolved Yes on 25 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 47.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 12 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2026 to 25 Jul 2026, the highest close was 51% on 21 Jul 2026 and the lowest 29.5% on 23 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 29.5% on 23 Jul 2026. $67.24K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 26, 10:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 12 Jul 2026 – 25 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 25 Jul 2026 | 47.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| racooks | No | 1.29K |
| Swift Falcon 2179 | No | 1K |
| MoneyMachine39 | No | 84.81 |
| journeymanfinalboss | No | 81.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Thomas Petersen and Valter Walker at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-tho4-val7-2026-07-25
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| BOOKMAKER67 | No | 69.99 |
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| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 30 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | No | 14 |
