Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 49%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 26 Mar 2026 to 2 Apr 2026, the highest close was 51.5% on 27 Mar 2026 and the lowest 50% on 29 Mar 2026. $1.1K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 6, 12:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 26 Mar 2026 – 2 Apr 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | 50.5% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 51.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GooberThaGooner | Yes | 167.71 |
| mengmeng6 | Yes | 86.75 |
| UFCMaid | Yes | 30.91 |
| sylvesterkw | Yes | 23.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Guilherme Pat defeats Thomas Petersen at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan, scheduled for April 4, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 18, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-tho4-gui2-2026-04-04
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 15.95 |
| vinist | Yes | 11.98 |
| 097235097 | Yes | 4.79 |
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